You could be forgiven for believing that the Internet was somehow deciding UK elections. There are certainly no shortage of the use of ‘tweets’ by news organisations, constantly asking us to get in touch.
So has everything really changed and is every news story now somehow broken via the Internet? Perhaps we should all just do online polls to decide who wins what post?
A little reminder from history
An infamous poll in the United States was done by telephone to determine who the next president would be and they managed to get it spectacularly wrong. Why? Well landline phones were comparatively expensive then and only used by a particular section of the population.
So is it the same case here? Social media is (in theory) free, though to use it effectively you need a computer, to understand social services and to really engage probably a smart-phone or other device. More importantly you need time and inclination to think it worthwhile.
We know first-hand that the older generation is getting online (we’ve even taught a few 70+ through out tutoring service) and in the UK is currently the fastest growing segment. However that statistic is hardly surprising with near complete saturation of the young (good luck getting through school not using it), so maybe beware such statistics.
It seems as though you can’t move for Politicians online (yes, some of our team have setup such accounts and feeds), not to mention celebrities, personalities and just about anyone. It certainly can be a great way to disseminate information about potential policy and gauge reaction … or share more than anyone wanted to know.
So do the opinions of these movers and shakers, normal people and those with just too little to do change an entire election? Do they merely report on it or is it likely to be somewhere in the middle? How much is complete propaganda (as was suggested with some Iran reporting)? How do we tell quality from the quantity which is being output via Twitter?
Just possibly it’s a little easier (and cheaper) to report on something you can see on a screen that is generated for you and constantly updated rather than commission a poll or go and talk to people. Also perhaps the immediate reaction via a tweet to a developing story isn’t perhaps as considered as it could be? Perhaps we are just such an immediate culture that we form our opinions immediately and think no further?
Did you accept the ‘invitation’ from William and Kate’s Facebook page? Ok, that’s not strictly UK politics (or is it?). Certainly President Obama used the web and social media to effect, if not for campaigning then at least for fundraising and gaining interest among the press because it was done on such a scale that they reported it.
Pretty much any political campaign (or any campaign) has a Facebook Page of sorts (try searching for ‘No to AV’ or ‘Alternative Vote’ both have pages). However although there are many ‘likes’ (10,000+ for ‘No to AV’) that is really quite a small number when you think about how many people are likely to vote and does ‘like’ really mean anything?
And don’t forget that Facebook, Twitter and more are linked – so one post on Facebook could then automatically post on Twitter and it could have been generated in the first place by the campaign’s website. So a lot of noise and ‘likes’ doesn’t necessarily mean much.
Enough Questions, Conclude!
Perhaps the door-to-door campaigning isn’t dead yet. There will always be new methods like the ‘Presidential-style’ debates of the last general election and social media will play a growing role but we can’t recall a memorable tweet or post that made us change our mind – perhaps they did yours?
It is likely that no-one really knows the answer to this kind of question until someone does a proper exit poll and asks questions like ‘what influenced your vote?’ but it is becoming clear that the audience for TV is more fragmented, people have less time to read considered debates in newspapers or even political leaflets.
In summary, the electorate as a whole is becoming more difficult to reach through one means of advertising and so social media must play a role but a part. And any media that encourages debate and involvement in the political process is surely something that should be encouraged, so long as ‘retweeting’ and ‘likes’ don’t get confused for getting down to the polling station and sticking an ‘X’ (or number!) on a piece of paper.
